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Cagayan de Oro scenarios A, B, C
Adopted FY2025 is scenario A. B holds the estimated year (FY2024). C trims ledger offices and holds the total. Upload a proposed book, edit departments, then read the simulation against estimated and FY2023 actuals.
| Department | Adopted FY2025 | FY2024 est. | FY2023 actual | Scenario A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NON-OFFICE: SOCIAL SERVICES SECTOR | ₱1.74B | ₱1.42B | ₱997.03M | |
| NON OFFICE: ECONOMIC SERVICES SECTOR | ₱1.52B | ₱4.26B | ₱98.06M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY MAYOR | ₱501.96M | ₱450.28M | ₱352.19M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY HEALTH OFFICER | ₱369.58M | ₱356.08M | ₱255.76M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY SOCIAL WELFARE AND DEV'T OFFICER | ₱353.49M | ₱390.56M | ₱254.76M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY ENGINEER | ₱219.88M | ₱208.58M | ₱172.81M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY TREASURER | ₱133.98M | ₱126.42M | ₱92.95M | |
| OFFICE OF THE ROADS & TRAFFIC ADMINISTRATION OFFICER | ₱124.04M | ₱123.45M | ₱99.25M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY AGRICULTURIST | ₱122.76M | ₱123.5M | ₱69.13M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES OFFICER | ₱106.31M | ₱112.48M | ₱89.93M | |
| SANGGUNIANG PANLUNGSOD MEMBERS | ₱103.06M | ₱97.9M | ₱68.51M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY VICE MAYOR | ₱89.29M | ₱70.55M | ₱47.86M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY EQUIPMENT DEPOT MANAGER | ₱88.35M | ₱107.12M | ₱62.52M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY PUBLIC SERVICES OFFICER | ₱79.23M | ₱75.37M | ₱58.56M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY ASSESSOR | ₱75.13M | ₱71.28M | ₱55.01M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY PUBLIC EMPLOYMENT SERVICE MANAGER | ₱69.5M | ₱70.37M | ₱44.33M | |
| CITY HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT | ₱62.1M | ₱59.84M | ₱42.65M | |
| CITY TOURISM AND CULTURAL AFFAIRS OFFICE | ₱61.8M | ₱49.68M | ₱29.17M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY VETERINARIAN | ₱59.9M | ₱57.7M | ₱41.21M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT COORDINATOR | ₱56.73M | ₱50.92M | ₱34.74M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY BUILDING OFFICIAL | ₱54M | ₱52.03M | ₱36.08M | |
| OFFICE FOR COMMUNITY AFFAIRS | ₱53.4M | ₱66.62M | ₱40.41M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY SECRETARY | ₱52.26M | ₱49M | ₱38.14M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY ACCOUNTANT | ₱51.62M | ₱46.58M | ₱33.48M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY GENERAL SERVICES OFFICER | ₱46.17M | ₱44.91M | ₱31.35M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY BUDGET OFFICER | ₱40.69M | ₱36.75M | ₱23.67M | |
| OFFICE OF THE HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT OFFICER | ₱39.03M | ₱39.24M | ₱24.77M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY MAYOR - SOCIAL AUXILLIARY PROGRAMS AND PROJECTS | ₱36.6M | ₱28.22M | ₱9.28M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND MANAGEMENT OFFICER | ₱34.11M | ₱29.07M | ₱24.15M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY LEGAL OFFICER | ₱33.67M | ₱31.65M | ₱19.48M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY CIVIL REGISTRAR | ₱32.67M | ₱31.48M | ₱23.57M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY ADMINISTRATOR | ₱32.64M | ₱27.39M | ₱24.18M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY HEALTH INSURANCE OFFICER | ₱31.5M | ₱29.87M | ₱15.18M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY EDUCATION AND DEVELOPMENT OFFICER | ₱28.53M | ₱21M | ₱8.58M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY MAYOR - COMMUNITY IMPROVEMENT DIVISION | ₱24.94M | ₱26.16M | ₱15.09M | |
| CAGAYAN DE ORO TRADE AND INVESTMENT PROMOTIONS CENTER | ₱23.04M | ₱23.5M | ₱8.01M | |
| CITY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEM AND INNOVATION DEPARTMENT | ₱21.55M | ₱18.43M | ₱11.81M | |
| MUNICIPAL TRIAL COURT IN CITIES | ₱16.89M | ₱15.8M | ₱11.31M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY INTERNAL AUDIT SERVICE | ₱13.55M | ₱14.95M | ₱8.67M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY MAYOR - OFFICE OF THE CITY YOUTH DEVELOPMENT OFFICER | ₱13.41M | ₱10.98M | ₱7.02M | |
| DEPARTMENT OF INTERIOR AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT | ₱8.98M | ₱5.78M | ₱314.8K | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY PROSECUTOR | ₱8.17M | ₱6.51M | ₱4.41M | |
| PEOPLE'S LAW ENFORCEMENT BOARD | ₱4.35M | ₱3.89M | ₱2.89M | |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY AUDITOR | ₱3.65M | ₱7.27M | ₱1.53M | |
| CITY REGISTER OF DEEDS | ₱2.32M | ₱2.26M | ₱954.45K |
45 of 45 departments
Simulated results vs estimated
Each scenario is scored against the estimated year the city already printed. When actuals exist, MAPE says which book would have been closer — and learned department biases project the next year.
| Metric | A · Adopted FY2025 | B · Hold FY2024 estimated | C · Hold total · trim ledger offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | ₱6.65B | ₱8.95B | ₱6.65B |
| Vs estimated | -25.8% | 0% | -25.8% |
| Vs adopted | 0% | +34.7% | 0% |
| Top 3 concentration | 56.6% | 68.5% | 56.5% |
| Largest increase | DEPARTMENT OF INTERIOR AND L +55.3% | NON-OFFICE: SOCIAL SERVICES 0% | DEPARTMENT OF INTERIOR AND L +56.7% |
| Largest cut | NON OFFICE: ECONOMIC SERVICE -64.3% | NON-OFFICE: SOCIAL SERVICES 0% | NON OFFICE: ECONOMIC SERVICE -64% |
| MAPE vs actuals (hindsight) | 162% | 195.6% | 162.1% |
| Projected actual (learned) | ₱3.64B | ₱3.39B | ₱3.63B |
Scenario A flags
- OFFICE OF THE CITY MAYOR is +11.5% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
- OFFICE OF THE CITY VICE MAYOR is +26.6% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
- OFFICE OF THE CITY MAYOR - SOCIAL AUXILLIARY PROGRAMS AND PROJECTS is +29.7% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
- OFFICE OF THE CITY ADMINISTRATOR is +19.2% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
- OFFICE OF THE CITY MAYOR - OFFICE OF THE CITY YOUTH DEVELOPMENT OFFICER is +22.1% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
- Top 3 departments hold 56.6% of this scenario. Concentration is not waste, but it is where a bad year hides.
Scenario B flags
- Top 3 departments hold 68.5% of this scenario. Concentration is not waste, but it is where a bad year hides.
Scenario C flags
- OFFICE OF THE CITY VICE MAYOR is +17.5% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
- OFFICE OF THE CITY MAYOR - SOCIAL AUXILLIARY PROGRAMS AND PROJECTS is +20.4% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
- OFFICE OF THE CITY ADMINISTRATOR is +10.7% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
- OFFICE OF THE CITY MAYOR - OFFICE OF THE CITY YOUTH DEVELOPMENT OFFICER is +13.4% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
- Top 3 departments hold 56.5% of this scenario. Concentration is not waste, but it is where a bad year hides.
Measured · learned · improved
45 departments have actuals vs estimated
Where FY2023 actuals missed the FY2024 estimate, we keep that factor. The next proposed book is simulated as “what this office usually really spends,” not what it prints. Lowest MAPE after learning is the scenario to take to council.
| Department | Est. error | Learned factor |
|---|---|---|
| NON OFFICE: ECONOMIC SERVICES SECTOR | -97.7% | ×0.023 |
| DEPARTMENT OF INTERIOR AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT | -94.6% | ×0.054 |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY AUDITOR | -79.0% | ×0.210 |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY MAYOR - SOCIAL AUXILLIARY PROGRAMS AND PROJECTS | -67.1% | ×0.329 |
| CAGAYAN DE ORO TRADE AND INVESTMENT PROMOTIONS CENTER | -65.9% | ×0.341 |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY EDUCATION AND DEVELOPMENT OFFICER | -59.2% | ×0.408 |
| CITY REGISTER OF DEEDS | -57.7% | ×0.423 |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY HEALTH INSURANCE OFFICER | -49.2% | ×0.508 |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY AGRICULTURIST | -44.0% | ×0.560 |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY MAYOR - COMMUNITY IMPROVEMENT DIVISION | -42.3% | ×0.577 |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY INTERNAL AUDIT SERVICE | -42.0% | ×0.580 |
| OFFICE OF THE CITY EQUIPMENT DEPOT MANAGER | -41.6% | ×0.584 |
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