Charlotte scenarios A, B, C
Adopted FY2026 is scenario A. B holds the estimated year (FY2025). C trims ledger offices and holds the total. Upload a proposed book, edit departments, then read the simulation against estimated and FY2024 actuals.
| Department | Adopted FY2026 | FY2025 est. | FY2024 actual | Scenario A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Police | $366.19M | $364.49M | — | |
| Fire | $207.8M | $194.88M | — | |
| Solid Waste Services | $91.21M | $86.39M | — | |
| Innovation & Technology | $53.66M | $50.04M | — | |
| Non-Departmental | $42.92M | $36.96M | — | |
| Transportation | $37.61M | $36.85M | — | |
| General Services | $34.37M | $27.06M | — | |
| Housing and Neighborhood Services | $25.52M | $26.99M | — | |
| Planning, Design, and Development | $17.02M | $16.38M | — | |
| Finance | $12.11M | $12.07M | — | |
| Human Resources | $8.64M | $8.16M | — | |
| Contracting and Procurement | $8.57M | — | — | |
| Economic Development | $7.56M | $7.4M | — | |
| City Attorney | $6.75M | $6.35M | — | |
| Special Initiatives | $4.4M | $2.25M | — | |
| Communication and Marketing | $4.28M | $5.47M | — | |
| City Manager | $3.54M | $3.45M | — | |
| Strategy and Budget | $2.73M | $2.77M | — | |
| Mayor and City Council | $2.7M | $1.11M | — | |
| Community Relations | $2.55M | $2.72M | — | |
| Internal Audit | $1.83M | $1.8M | — | |
| City Clerk | $1.54M | $1.46M | — |
Simulated results vs estimated
Each scenario is scored against the estimated year the city already printed. When actuals exist, MAPE says which book would have been closer — and learned department biases project the next year.
| Metric | A · Adopted FY2026 | B · Hold FY2025 estimated | C · Hold total · trim ledger offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $943.5M | $903.61M | $943.5M |
| Vs estimated | +5.4% | +1% | +5.4% |
| Vs adopted | 0% | -4.2% | 0% |
| Top 3 concentration | 70.5% | 71.5% | 71.3% |
| Largest increase | Mayor and City Council +144.3% | Police 0% | Mayor and City Council +119.8% |
| Largest cut | Communication and Marketing -21.7% | Police 0% | Communication and Marketing -23.4% |
| MAPE vs actuals (hindsight) | needs actuals | needs actuals | needs actuals |
| Projected actual (learned) | — | — | — |
- Mayor and City Council is +144.3% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
- Top 3 departments hold 70.5% of this scenario. Concentration is not waste, but it is where a bad year hides.
- Top 3 departments hold 71.5% of this scenario. Concentration is not waste, but it is where a bad year hides.
- Mayor and City Council is +119.8% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
- Top 3 departments hold 71.3% of this scenario. Concentration is not waste, but it is where a bad year hides.
Learning starts when actuals land
This city's extract does not yet include a closed actuals year beside the estimate. The simulator still compares A/B/C to adopted and estimated; the learning loop turns on as soon as actuals are in the book.
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Upload as many proposed books as you run through council. We keep the scenarios, score them when estimated and actuals move, and the model tightens. This preview runs in the browser on the extract we already hold; the paid feed stores the city's own proposed files.