Chicago scenarios A, B, C
Adopted FY2026 is scenario A. B holds the estimated year (FY2025). C trims ledger offices and holds the total. Upload a proposed book, edit departments, then read the simulation against estimated and FY2024 actuals.
| Department | Adopted FY2026 | FY2025 est. | FY2024 actual | Scenario A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finance General | $8.19B | — | — | |
| Chicago Police Department | $2.02B | — | — | |
| Chicago Department of Aviation | $919.56M | — | — | |
| Chicago Fire Department | $862.44M | — | — | |
| Department of Fleet and Facility Management | $495.52M | — | — | |
| Department of Water Management | $433.05M | — | — | |
| Department of Streets and Sanitation | $346.89M | — | — | |
| Chicago Department of Transportation | $240.12M | — | — | |
| Department of Family and Support Services | $213.88M | — | — | |
| Office of Public Safety Administration | $115.08M | — | — | |
| Department of Planning and Development | $114.03M | — | — | |
| Department of Finance | $113.18M | — | — | |
| Chicago Department of Public Health | $104.99M | — | — | |
| Chicago Public Library | $95.54M | — | — | |
| Office of Emergency Management and Communications | $91.49M | — | — | |
| Department of Technology and Innovation | $64.26M | — | — | |
| Department of Law | $47.83M | — | — | |
| Department of Cultural Affairs and Special Events | $43.67M | — | — | |
| Department of Buildings | $39.37M | — | — | |
| City Council | $37.76M | — | — | |
| Department of Business Affairs and Consumer Protection | $33.14M | — | — | |
| Board of Election Commissioners | $27.87M | — | — | |
| Civilian Office of Police Accountability | $15.78M | — | — | |
| Office of the Mayor | $15.56M | — | — | |
| Office of City Clerk | $15.21M | — | — | |
| Office of Inspector General | $14.3M | — | — | |
| Department of Procurement Services | $13.92M | — | — | |
| Department of Housing | $13.79M | — | — | |
| Department of Human Resources | $12.04M | — | — | |
| Department of Administrative Hearings | $8.39M | — | — | |
| Chicago Animal Care and Control | $8.18M | — | — | |
| City Treasurer's Office | $6.5M | — | — | |
| Department of Environment | $5.61M | — | — | |
| Office of Budget and Management | $4.92M | — | — | |
| Community Commission for Public Safety and Accountability | $4.03M | — | — | |
| Mayor's Office for People with Disabilities | $3.26M | — | — | |
| Chicago Commission on Human Relations | $1.67M | — | — | |
| Board of Ethics | $925.6K | — | — | |
| Chicago Police Board | $498.2K | — | — | |
| License Appeal Commission | $209.99K | — | — |
Simulated results vs estimated
Each scenario is scored against the estimated year the city already printed. When actuals exist, MAPE says which book would have been closer — and learned department biases project the next year.
| Metric | A · Adopted FY2026 | B · Across-the-board −3% | C · Hold total · trim ledger offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $14.8B | $14.35B | $14.8B |
| Vs estimated | — | — | — |
| Vs adopted | 0% | -3% | 0% |
| Top 3 concentration | 75.2% | 75.2% | 74.5% |
| Largest increase | Finance General 0% | Finance General -3% | Chicago Police Department +8.5% |
| Largest cut | Finance General 0% | Finance General -3% | Finance General -4% |
| MAPE vs actuals (hindsight) | needs actuals | needs actuals | needs actuals |
| Projected actual (learned) | — | — | — |
- Top 3 departments hold 75.2% of this scenario. Concentration is not waste, but it is where a bad year hides.
- Top 3 departments hold 75.2% of this scenario. Concentration is not waste, but it is where a bad year hides.
- Top 3 departments hold 74.5% of this scenario. Concentration is not waste, but it is where a bad year hides.
Learning starts when actuals land
This city's extract does not yet include a closed actuals year beside the estimate. The simulator still compares A/B/C to adopted and estimated; the learning loop turns on as soon as actuals are in the book.
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Upload as many proposed books as you run through council. We keep the scenarios, score them when estimated and actuals move, and the model tightens. This preview runs in the browser on the extract we already hold; the paid feed stores the city's own proposed files.