Jacksonville scenarios A, B, C
Adopted FY2026 is scenario A. B holds the estimated year (FY2025). C trims ledger offices and holds the total. Upload a proposed book, edit departments, then read the simulation against estimated and FY2024 actuals.
| Department | Adopted FY2026 | FY2025 est. | FY2024 actual | Scenario A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire and Rescue-Center | $387.46M | $386.24M | — | |
| Patrol & Enforcement | $249.27M | $252.36M | — | |
| Corrections | $173.24M | $167.24M | — | |
| Investigations & Homeland Security | $102.5M | $106.76M | — | |
| Public Works | $63.48M | $67.55M | — | |
| Police Services | $62.56M | $58.46M | — | |
| Parks, Recreation & Community Services | $57.21M | $57.67M | — | |
| Personnel & Professional Standards | $42.66M | $40.5M | — | |
| Public Library | $41.53M | $40.87M | — | |
| Finance | $17.19M | $19.82M | — | |
| Office of Administrative Services | $16.01M | $17.22M | — | |
| City Council | $12.61M | $13.93M | — | |
| Neighborhoods | $12.24M | $12.47M | — | |
| Supervisor of Elections | $9.43M | $8.36M | — | |
| Executive Office of the Sheriff | $7.75M | $7.9M | — | |
| Employee Services | $7.31M | $8.39M | — | |
| Medical Examiner | $7.1M | $7.18M | — | |
| Courts | $5.13M | $6.26M | — | |
| Executive Office of the Mayor | $4.86M | $4.98M | — | |
| Planning and Development | $4.6M | $4.42M | — | |
| Office of Economic Development | $3.08M | $3.39M | — | |
| Office of State's Attorney | $2.84M | $2.91M | — | |
| Health Administrator | $1.9M | $1.9M | — | |
| Office of the Inspector General | $1.54M | $1.61M | — | |
| Clerk of the Court-Center | $1.53M | $1.55M | — | |
| Public Defender's | $1.51M | $2.54M | — | |
| Military Affairs and Veterans | $1.43M | $1.66M | — | |
| Office of Sports and Entertainment | $1.12M | $1.26M | — | |
| Jacksonville Human Rights Commission | $1.04M | $1.02M | — | |
| Downtown Investment Authority | $746.34K | $1.23M | — | |
| Office of Ethics | $644.47K | $819.19K | — | |
| Advisory Boards And Commissions | $519.82K | $592.51K | — | |
| Office of General Counsel-Center | $149.98K | $152.72K | — |
Simulated results vs estimated
Each scenario is scored against the estimated year the city already printed. When actuals exist, MAPE says which book would have been closer — and learned department biases project the next year.
| Metric | A · Adopted FY2026 | B · Hold FY2025 estimated | C · Hold total · trim ledger offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $1.3B | $1.31B | $1.3B |
| Vs estimated | -0.5% | 0% | -0.5% |
| Vs adopted | 0% | +0.5% | 0% |
| Top 3 concentration | 62.2% | 61.6% | 62.9% |
| Largest increase | Supervisor of Elections +12.8% | Fire and Rescue-Center 0% | Supervisor of Elections +12% |
| Largest cut | Public Defender's -40.5% | Fire and Rescue-Center 0% | Public Defender's -41% |
| MAPE vs actuals (hindsight) | needs actuals | needs actuals | needs actuals |
| Projected actual (learned) | — | — | — |
- Top 3 departments hold 62.2% of this scenario. Concentration is not waste, but it is where a bad year hides.
- Top 3 departments hold 61.6% of this scenario. Concentration is not waste, but it is where a bad year hides.
- Top 3 departments hold 62.9% of this scenario. Concentration is not waste, but it is where a bad year hides.
Learning starts when actuals land
This city's extract does not yet include a closed actuals year beside the estimate. The simulator still compares A/B/C to adopted and estimated; the learning loop turns on as soon as actuals are in the book.
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Upload as many proposed books as you run through council. We keep the scenarios, score them when estimated and actuals move, and the model tightens. This preview runs in the browser on the extract we already hold; the paid feed stores the city's own proposed files.