← Salem, NH
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Salem, NH scenarios A, B, C
Adopted FY2026 is scenario A. B holds the estimated year (FY2025). C trims ledger offices and holds the total. Upload a proposed book, edit departments, then read the simulation against estimated and FY2024 actuals.
| Department | Adopted FY2026 | FY2025 est. | FY2024 actual | Scenario A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Department — Suppression | $14.1M | $13.18M | $12.6M | |
| Police Department — Patrol | $7.29M | $6.69M | $6.4M | |
| Capital | $5.67M | $10.75M | $1.82M | |
| Debt Services | $3.59M | $1.96M | $719.25K | |
| Capital — Warrant Articles | $3.46M | $3.64M | $5.74M | |
| Sewer Administration | $3.2M | $3.17M | $3.01M | |
| Police Department — Support Services | $2.93M | $2.88M | $2.78M | |
| Police Department — Investigative Services | $2.89M | $2.69M | $2.67M | |
| Water Fund — Operations | $2.59M | $2.05M | $2.24M | |
| Water Administration | $2.13M | $2.06M | $1.97M | |
| Municipal Services — Streets/Shops | $1.87M | $1.72M | $1.59M | |
| Municipal Services — Solid Waste | $1.76M | $1.38M | $1.34M | |
| Library Administration | $1.62M | $1.48M | $1.5M | |
| Police Department — Special Services | $1.51M | $1.27M | $1.22M | |
| Information Technology | $1.47M | $1.09M | $812.56K | |
| Employee Benefits | $1.44M | $1.36M | $1.44M | |
| Fire Administration | $1.32M | $1.27M | $1.21M | |
| Finance | $1.24M | $1.13M | $1.11M | |
| Fire Department — Inspectional Services | $1.09M | $1.01M | $967.51K | |
| Fire Department — Communications | $971.74K | $936.1K | $818.5K | |
| Municipal Services — Winter Weather | $931.62K | $1.3M | $948.65K | |
| Sewer Fund — Debt Services | $900.69K | $813.04K | $588.85K | |
| Police Administration | $853.68K | $855.41K | $798.74K | |
| Municipal Services — Fleet | $766.47K | $621.39K | $591.82K | |
| Municipal Administration | $699.19K | $551.54K | $580.19K | |
| Municipal Services — Engineering | $696.18K | $723.15K | $764.94K | |
| Town Manager | $684.94K | $541.84K | $502.74K | |
| Municipal Services — Lighting | $607.64K | $591.03K | $608.25K | |
| Insurance | $563.1K | $539.23K | $449.55K | |
| Community Services Administration | $549.01K | $497.65K | $546.42K | |
| Water Fund — Debt Services | $536.58K | $656.24K | $1.06M | |
| Municipal Services — Parks/Property | $522.52K | $721.16K | $771.03K | |
| Assessing | $517.04K | $388.29K | $391.14K | |
| Collections | $483.17K | $334.59K | $353.87K | |
| Town Facilities | $454.31K | $0 | $0 | |
| Water Fund — Capital Projects | $397.25K | $249.79K | $259.79K | |
| Human Resources | $373.86K | $356.11K | $345.73K | |
| Planning | $326.05K | $297.15K | $285.26K | |
| Community Development | $296.58K | $279.4K | $268.57K | |
| Fire-Stations | $289.33K | $264.13K | $278.44K | |
| Tax Collector | $222.77K | $215.74K | $210.94K | |
| Town Clerk | $220.27K | $231.33K | $240.83K | |
| Town Hall | $202.84K | $232.36K | $366.14K | |
| Sewer Fund — Capital Projects | $200K | $938.68K | $974.33K | |
| Legal | $174.5K | $153.55K | $472.68K | |
| Police Department — Station | $166.5K | $172.58K | $135.15K | |
| District Court | $126.73K | $125.21K | $121.14K | |
| Outside Human Services | $107.3K | $107.3K | $106.3K | |
| Library Building | $101.16K | $96.54K | $84.92K | |
| Human Services Administration | $83.57K | $58.95K | $43.13K | |
| Municipal Services — Garage | $83.16K | $184.23K | $132.64K | |
| Town Council | $82.5K | $79.14K | $76.31K | |
| Elections | $71.24K | $84.21K | $161.56K | |
| Water Fund — Buildings | $64.61K | $78.43K | $119.07K | |
| Fire Department — Central Station #1 | $63.31K | $197.04K | $103.94K | |
| Ingram Senior Center | $61.65K | $76.03K | $55.55K | |
| Fire Department — North Station #2 | $46.88K | $37.6K | $60.2K | |
| Direct Assistance | $44.9K | $32.56K | $51.85K | |
| Fire Department — South Station #3 | $39.56K | $38.55K | $46.27K | |
| Trustee of Trust Funds | $18.9K | $21.49K | $20.07K | |
| Old Town Hall | $15.26K | $14.12K | $15.58K | |
| Depot Train Station | $11.4K | $13.39K | $10.99K | |
| Community Contributions | $5K | $5K | $25.58K | |
| Water Fund — Warrant Articles | $5K | $5K | $5K | |
| Planning Board | $3.91K | $3.61K | $4.01K | |
| Hose House | $3.83K | $43.27K | $5.85K | |
| Old Library | $3.81K | $2.77K | $2.89K | |
| Recreational Facilities | $3.81K | $4.03K | $10.28K | |
| Conservation Commission | $2.36K | $2.64K | $2.51K | |
| School House #5 | $2.04K | $1.61K | $3.48K | |
| Budget Committee | $1.98K | $1.06K | $1.74K | |
| Board of Adjustment | $1.76K | $2.19K | $2.18K | |
| Communications Committee | $0 | $0 | $539 | |
| Police Department — Animal Control | $0 | $0 | $13.05K | |
| Sewer Fund — Warrant Articles | $0 | $5K | $5K |
75 of 75 departments
Simulated results vs estimated
Each scenario is scored against the estimated year the city already printed. When actuals exist, MAPE says which book would have been closer — and learned department biases project the next year.
| Metric | A · Adopted FY2026 | B · Hold FY2025 estimated | C · Hold total · trim ledger offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $75.84M | $75.57M | $75.84M |
| Vs estimated | +0.4% | 0% | +0.4% |
| Vs adopted | 0% | -0.4% | 0% |
| Top 3 concentration | 35.7% | 40.5% | 36.8% |
| Largest increase | Budget Committee +87.2% | Fire Department — Suppressio 0% | Budget Committee +87.2% |
| Largest cut | Sewer Fund — Warrant Article -100% | Fire Department — Suppressio 0% | Sewer Fund — Warrant Article -100% |
| MAPE vs actuals (hindsight) | 34.5% | 36.4% | 34.1% |
| Projected actual (learned) | $69.32M | $66.02M | $69.25M |
Scenario A flags
- Water Fund — Operations is +26% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
- Library Administration is +9.8% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
- Finance is +9.6% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
- Municipal Administration is +26.8% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
- Community Services Administration is +10.3% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
- Water Fund — Capital Projects is +59% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
- Human Services Administration is +41.8% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
Scenario B flags
No automated risk callouts.
Scenario C flags
- Water Fund — Operations is +15.9% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
- Municipal Administration is +16.6% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
- Water Fund — Capital Projects is +46.3% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
- Human Services Administration is +30.4% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
Measured · learned · improved
72 departments have actuals vs estimated
Where FY2024 actuals missed the FY2025 estimate, we keep that factor. The next proposed book is simulated as “what this office usually really spends,” not what it prints. Lowest MAPE after learning is the scenario to take to council.
| Department | Est. error | Learned factor |
|---|---|---|
| Community Contributions | +411.7% | ×5.117 |
| Legal | +207.8% | ×3.078 |
| Recreational Facilities | +154.8% | ×2.548 |
| School House #5 | +115.6% | ×2.156 |
| Elections | +91.9% | ×1.919 |
| Hose House | -86.5% | ×0.135 |
| Capital | -83.1% | ×0.169 |
| Budget Committee | +64.7% | ×1.647 |
| Debt Services | -63.4% | ×0.366 |
| Water Fund — Debt Services | +61.0% | ×1.610 |
| Fire Department — North Station #2 | +60.1% | ×1.601 |
| Direct Assistance | +59.3% | ×1.593 |
Premium · Salem, NH
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Upload as many proposed books as you run through council. We keep the scenarios, score them when estimated and actuals move, and the model tightens. This preview runs in the browser on the extract we already hold; the paid feed stores the city's own proposed files.