San Francisco scenarios A, B, C
Adopted FY2027 is scenario A. B holds the estimated year (FY2026). C trims ledger offices and holds the total. Upload a proposed book, edit departments, then read the simulation against estimated and FY2025 actuals.
| Department | Adopted FY2027 | FY2026 est. | FY2025 actual | Scenario A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Health | $3.62B | $3.37B | — | |
| Public Utilities Commission | $2.18B | $2.13B | — | |
| Airport Commission | $1.78B | $1.79B | — | |
| Municipal Transportation Agency | $1.61B | $1.55B | — | |
| General City Responsibility | $1.58B | $1.69B | — | |
| Human Services | $1.38B | $1.31B | — | |
| Police | $882.7M | $849.48M | — | |
| Homelessness And Supportive Housing | $835.35M | $785.56M | — | |
| General Services Agency - City Admin | $593.64M | $610.92M | — | |
| Fire Department | $575.51M | $554.71M | — | |
| Public Works | $486.18M | $428.51M | — | |
| Sheriff | $377.48M | $345.64M | — | |
| Children; Youth & Their Families | $370.58M | $347.62M | — | |
| Recreation And Park Commission | $354.15M | $262.8M | — | |
| Dept of Early Childhood | $343.64M | $341.5M | — | |
| Port | $231.79M | $156.22M | — | |
| Mayor | $217.95M | $176.59M | — | |
| Public Library | $198.45M | $193.37M | — | |
| General Services Agency - Technology | $172.54M | $171.69M | — | |
| Human Resources | $164.09M | $157.95M | — | |
| City Attorney | $132.66M | $125.13M | — | |
| Emergency Management | $113.99M | $161.56M | — | |
| District Attorney | $99.15M | $96.61M | — | |
| Building Inspection | $96.68M | $92.73M | — | |
| Controller | $86.36M | $86.32M | — | |
| Economic And Workforce Development | $84.18M | $85.72M | — | |
| City Planning | $75.74M | $59.1M | — | |
| Adult Probation | $72.69M | $61.63M | — | |
| Retirement System | $62.15M | $55.9M | — | |
| Public Defender | $61.04M | $58.35M | — | |
| Juvenile Probation | $55.46M | $52.87M | — | |
| Treasurer/Tax Collector | $49.95M | $56.45M | — | |
| Arts Commission | $45.81M | $24.55M | — | |
| Assessor / Recorder | $43.28M | $42.33M | — | |
| Environment | $36.51M | $40.89M | — | |
| Superior Court | $34.01M | $33.2M | — | |
| War Memorial | $31.68M | $32.34M | — | |
| Agency for Human Rights | $29.51M | $0 | — | |
| Fine Arts Museum | $26.63M | $24.51M | — | |
| Board Of Supervisors | $25.65M | $26.56M | — | |
| Elections | $23.02M | $22.67M | — | |
| Rent Arbitration Board | $14.35M | $14.51M | — | |
| Child Support Services | $13.5M | $13.31M | — | |
| Health Service System | $13.31M | $12.46M | — | |
| Asian Art Museum | $13.12M | $12.77M | — | |
| Mayor | $12.24M | $11.63M | — | |
| Department Of Police Accountability | $10.27M | $9.64M | — | |
| Ethics Commission | $9.3M | $6.58M | — | |
| Academy Of Sciences | $9.05M | $8.11M | — | |
| Civil Service Commission | $1.7M | $1.61M | — | |
| Office of Sheriff’s Inspector General | $1.56M | $1.28M | — | |
| Law Library | $1.39M | $1.24M | — | |
| Board Of Appeals | $1.25M | $1.25M | — | |
| Human Rights Commission | $0 | $30.03M | — |
Simulated results vs estimated
Each scenario is scored against the estimated year the city already printed. When actuals exist, MAPE says which book would have been closer — and learned department biases project the next year.
| Metric | A · Adopted FY2027 | B · Hold FY2026 estimated | C · Hold total · trim ledger offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $19.14B | $18.42B | $19.35B |
| Vs estimated | +3% | -0.9% | +4.1% |
| Vs adopted | -1.1% | -4.8% | +0.1% |
| Top 3 concentration | 39.6% | 39.6% | 40% |
| Largest increase | Arts Commission +86.6% | Public Health 0% | Arts Commission +87.1% |
| Largest cut | Human Rights Commission -100% | Mayor -93.4% | Human Rights Commission -100% |
| MAPE vs actuals (hindsight) | needs actuals | needs actuals | needs actuals |
| Projected actual (learned) | — | — | — |
- Public Works is +13.5% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
No automated risk callouts.
No automated risk callouts.
Learning starts when actuals land
This city's extract does not yet include a closed actuals year beside the estimate. The simulator still compares A/B/C to adopted and estimated; the learning loop turns on as soon as actuals are in the book.
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Upload as many proposed books as you run through council. We keep the scenarios, score them when estimated and actuals move, and the model tightens. This preview runs in the browser on the extract we already hold; the paid feed stores the city's own proposed files.