Singapore scenarios A, B, C
Adopted FY2026 is scenario A. B holds the estimated year (FY2025). C trims ledger offices and holds the total. Upload a proposed book, edit departments, then read the simulation against estimated and FY2024 actuals.
| Department | Adopted FY2026 | FY2025 est. | FY2024 actual | Scenario A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ministry of Defence | SGD24.93B | SGD23.44B | SGD20.81B | |
| Ministry of Health | SGD22.5B | SGD20.38B | SGD18.22B | |
| Ministry of Education | SGD16.45B | SGD15.13B | SGD14.43B | |
| Ministry of Transport | SGD16.15B | SGD15.93B | SGD14.63B | |
| Ministry of Home Affairs | SGD11.69B | SGD9.66B | SGD8.45B | |
| Ministry of Trade and Industry | SGD11.1B | SGD6.59B | SGD5.83B | |
| Ministry of National Development | SGD10.09B | SGD9.31B | SGD9.86B | |
| Ministry of Social and Family Development | SGD6.07B | SGD5.47B | SGD4.53B | |
| Ministry of Manpower | SGD4.1B | SGD4.07B | SGD3.09B | |
| Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment | SGD3.69B | SGD4.21B | SGD3.3B | |
| Ministry of Digital Development and Information | SGD3.1B | SGD3.04B | SGD2.74B | |
| Ministry of Culture, Community and Youth | SGD3.09B | SGD2.71B | SGD2.56B | |
| Ministry of Finance | SGD1.32B | SGD1.48B | SGD1.28B | |
| Prime Minister's Office | SGD840.4M | SGD1.18B | SGD592.24M | |
| Ministry of Law | SGD659.36M | SGD451.07M | SGD639.39M | |
| Ministry of Foreign Affairs | SGD644.65M | SGD586.27M | SGD534.29M | |
| Judicature | SGD439.2M | SGD415.53M | SGD426.21M | |
| Attorney-General's Chambers | SGD311.08M | SGD287.29M | SGD249.02M | |
| Parliament | SGD64.32M | SGD59.31M | SGD48.61M | |
| Auditor-General's Office | SGD49.31M | SGD46.44M | SGD43.66M | |
| Civil List for the President | SGD14.79M | SGD13.5M | SGD11.68M | |
| Public Service Commission | SGD1.75M | SGD1.71M | SGD1.69M | |
| Presidential Councils | SGD1.72M | SGD1.34M | SGD1.23M | |
| Cabinet Office | SGD1.2M | SGD1M | SGD877.53K |
Simulated results vs estimated
Each scenario is scored against the estimated year the city already printed. When actuals exist, MAPE says which book would have been closer — and learned department biases project the next year.
| Metric | A · Adopted FY2026 | B · Hold FY2025 estimated | C · Hold total · trim ledger offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | SGD137.32B | SGD124.46B | SGD137.32B |
| Vs estimated | +10.3% | 0% | +10.3% |
| Vs adopted | 0% | -9.4% | 0% |
| Top 3 concentration | 46.5% | 48% | 46.9% |
| Largest increase | Ministry of Trade and Indust +68.5% | Ministry of Defence 0% | Ministry of Trade and Indust +67.6% |
| Largest cut | Prime Minister's Office -28.7% | Ministry of Defence 0% | Prime Minister's Office -29.1% |
| MAPE vs actuals (hindsight) | 23.4% | 17% | 23% |
| Projected actual (learned) | SGD124.19B | SGD112.28B | SGD124.18B |
- This book is 10.3% above the estimated year. The estimate is the city's own forecast — beating it this hard needs a revenue story.
No automated risk callouts.
- This book is 10.3% above the estimated year. The estimate is the city's own forecast — beating it this hard needs a revenue story.
24 departments have actuals vs estimated
Where FY2024 actuals missed the FY2025 estimate, we keep that factor. The next proposed book is simulated as “what this office usually really spends,” not what it prints. Lowest MAPE after learning is the scenario to take to council.
| Department | Est. error | Learned factor |
|---|---|---|
| Prime Minister's Office | -49.8% | ×0.502 |
| Ministry of Law | +41.8% | ×1.418 |
| Ministry of Manpower | -24.2% | ×0.758 |
| Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment | -21.5% | ×0.785 |
| Parliament | -18.1% | ×0.819 |
| Ministry of Social and Family Development | -17.1% | ×0.829 |
| Ministry of Finance | -13.8% | ×0.862 |
| Civil List for the President | -13.5% | ×0.865 |
| Attorney-General's Chambers | -13.3% | ×0.867 |
| Cabinet Office | -12.7% | ×0.873 |
| Ministry of Home Affairs | -12.5% | ×0.875 |
| Ministry of Trade and Industry | -11.6% | ×0.884 |
$1,500 / month on mapped cities
Upload as many proposed books as you run through council. We keep the scenarios, score them when estimated and actuals move, and the model tightens. This preview runs in the browser on the extract we already hold; the paid feed stores the city's own proposed files.