West Covina scenarios A, B, C
Adopted FY2026 is scenario A. B holds the estimated year (FY2025). C trims ledger offices and holds the total. Upload a proposed book, edit departments, then read the simulation against estimated and FY2024 actuals.
| Department | Adopted FY2026 | FY2025 est. | FY2024 actual | Scenario A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Police | $38.36M | $34.07M | $32.94M | |
| Special Revenue Funds | $30.21M | — | — | |
| Fire | $26.07M | $26.09M | $24.76M | |
| Debt Service | $16.05M | — | — | |
| Internal Service Funds | $12.41M | — | — | |
| Public Works | $5.4M | $4.92M | $4.11M | |
| Finance | $4.33M | $3.9M | $3.34M | |
| Community Development | $2.71M | $2.83M | $3M | |
| Community Services | $2.64M | $2.72M | $2.64M | |
| Capital Project Funds | $2.64M | — | — | |
| Public Safety | $2.23M | $2.19M | $2.02M | |
| Administration | $2.1M | $2.36M | $1.99M | |
| Human Resources | $1.02M | $927.91K | $808.66K | |
| City Clerk | $902.08K | $410.84K | $460.84K | |
| Private Purpose Trust Funds | $686.27K | — | — | |
| Enterprise Fund | $668.59K | — | — |
Simulated results vs estimated
Each scenario is scored against the estimated year the city already printed. When actuals exist, MAPE says which book would have been closer — and learned department biases project the next year.
| Metric | A · Adopted FY2026 | B · Hold FY2025 estimated | C · Hold total · trim ledger offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $148.43M | $143.09M | $148.43M |
| Vs estimated | +84.6% | +77.9% | +84.6% |
| Vs adopted | 0% | -3.6% | 0% |
| Top 3 concentration | 63.8% | 63.2% | 64.8% |
| Largest increase | City Clerk +119.6% | Police 0% | City Clerk +99.8% |
| Largest cut | Administration -11% | Police 0% | Administration -19% |
| MAPE vs actuals (hindsight) | 23% | 10.7% | 19.7% |
| Projected actual (learned) | $143.88M | $138.74M | $143.96M |
- City Clerk is +119.6% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
- Top 3 departments hold 63.8% of this scenario. Concentration is not waste, but it is where a bad year hides.
- This book is 84.6% above the estimated year. The estimate is the city's own forecast — beating it this hard needs a revenue story.
- Top 3 departments hold 63.2% of this scenario. Concentration is not waste, but it is where a bad year hides.
- This book is 77.9% above the estimated year. The estimate is the city's own forecast — beating it this hard needs a revenue story.
- City Clerk is +99.8% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
- Top 3 departments hold 64.8% of this scenario. Concentration is not waste, but it is where a bad year hides.
- This book is 84.6% above the estimated year. The estimate is the city's own forecast — beating it this hard needs a revenue story.
10 departments have actuals vs estimated
Where FY2024 actuals missed the FY2025 estimate, we keep that factor. The next proposed book is simulated as “what this office usually really spends,” not what it prints. Lowest MAPE after learning is the scenario to take to council.
| Department | Est. error | Learned factor |
|---|---|---|
| Public Works | -16.5% | ×0.835 |
| Administration | -15.4% | ×0.846 |
| Finance | -14.4% | ×0.856 |
| Human Resources | -12.9% | ×0.871 |
| City Clerk | +12.2% | ×1.122 |
| Public Safety | -7.8% | ×0.922 |
| Community Development | +6.0% | ×1.060 |
| Fire | -5.1% | ×0.949 |
| Police | -3.3% | ×0.967 |
| Community Services | -3.0% | ×0.970 |
$1,500 / month on mapped cities
Upload as many proposed books as you run through council. We keep the scenarios, score them when estimated and actuals move, and the model tightens. This preview runs in the browser on the extract we already hold; the paid feed stores the city's own proposed files.