Houston scenarios A, B, C
Adopted FY2027 is scenario A. B holds the estimated year (FY2026). C trims ledger offices and holds the total. Upload a proposed book, edit departments, then read the simulation against estimated and FY2025 actuals.
| Department | Adopted FY2027 | FY2026 est. | FY2025 actual | Scenario A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Public Works | $3.65B | $3.24B | $2.8B | |
| Police Department | $1.25B | $1.17B | $1.09B | |
| Houston Airport System | $801.04M | $757.76M | $715.6M | |
| Fire Department | $718.97M | $732.26M | $680.37M | |
| Human Resources | $558.2M | $539.81M | $497.07M | |
| General Debt Service | $537.74M | $508M | $516.81M | |
| General Government | $288.94M | $290.24M | $258.87M | |
| General Services | $230.94M | $226.41M | $190.8M | |
| Houston Information Technology Services | $161.36M | $145.68M | $99.29M | |
| Convention & Entertainment | $141.08M | $118.42M | $122.59M | |
| Solid Waste Management | $137.03M | $110.75M | $113.11M | |
| Administration and Regulatory Affairs | $121.58M | $112.88M | $102.53M | |
| Fleet Management Department | $113.67M | $110.6M | $108.25M | |
| Parks and Recreation | $106.48M | $106.9M | $110.12M | |
| Houston Health Department | $106.22M | $91.6M | $88.27M | |
| Finance Department | $52.19M | $46.02M | $29.96M | |
| Library | $50.84M | $50.82M | $53.29M | |
| Legal | $48.48M | $46.83M | $42.25M | |
| Houston Emergency Center | $41.49M | $37.52M | $39.89M | |
| Mayor's Office | $36.15M | $37.36M | $37.64M | |
| Municipal Courts Department | $29.67M | $27.66M | $32.2M | |
| Planning & Development | $17.25M | $12.65M | $14.04M | |
| City Council | $16.97M | $22.57M | $15.05M | |
| City Controller | $11.59M | $10.94M | $10.39M | |
| Department of Neighborhoods | $7.37M | $6.42M | $13.02M | |
| Office of Business Opportunity | $6.3M | $5.52M | $5.74M | |
| Housing & Community Development | $1.29M | $1.87M | $2.31M | |
| City Secretary | $822.14K | $739.34K | $1.05M |
Simulated results vs estimated
Each scenario is scored against the estimated year the city already printed. When actuals exist, MAPE says which book would have been closer — and learned department biases project the next year.
| Metric | A · Adopted FY2027 | B · Hold FY2026 estimated | C · Hold total · trim ledger offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $9.25B | $8.57B | $9.25B |
| Vs estimated | +7.9% | 0% | +7.9% |
| Vs adopted | 0% | -7.3% | 0% |
| Top 3 concentration | 61.7% | 60.3% | 60.7% |
| Largest increase | Planning & Development +36.4% | Houston Public Works 0% | Planning & Development +40.1% |
| Largest cut | Housing & Community Developm -30.9% | Houston Public Works 0% | Housing & Community Developm -29% |
| MAPE vs actuals (hindsight) | 19.1% | 14.5% | 20.3% |
| Projected actual (learned) | $8.4B | $7.79B | $8.42B |
- Houston Public Works is +12.5% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
- Finance Department is +13.4% vs estimated — ledger offices grew in several of the mapped theft cases.
- Top 3 departments hold 61.7% of this scenario. Concentration is not waste, but it is where a bad year hides.
- Top 3 departments hold 60.3% of this scenario. Concentration is not waste, but it is where a bad year hides.
- Top 3 departments hold 60.7% of this scenario. Concentration is not waste, but it is where a bad year hides.
28 departments have actuals vs estimated
Where FY2025 actuals missed the FY2026 estimate, we keep that factor. The next proposed book is simulated as “what this office usually really spends,” not what it prints. Lowest MAPE after learning is the scenario to take to council.
| Department | Est. error | Learned factor |
|---|---|---|
| Department of Neighborhoods | +102.8% | ×2.028 |
| City Secretary | +42.2% | ×1.422 |
| Finance Department | -34.9% | ×0.651 |
| City Council | -33.3% | ×0.667 |
| Houston Information Technology Services | -31.8% | ×0.682 |
| Housing & Community Development | +23.9% | ×1.239 |
| Municipal Courts Department | +16.4% | ×1.164 |
| General Services | -15.7% | ×0.843 |
| Houston Public Works | -13.7% | ×0.863 |
| Planning & Development | +11.0% | ×1.110 |
| General Government | -10.8% | ×0.892 |
| Legal | -9.8% | ×0.902 |
$1,500 / month on mapped cities
Upload as many proposed books as you run through council. We keep the scenarios, score them when estimated and actuals move, and the model tightens. This preview runs in the browser on the extract we already hold; the paid feed stores the city's own proposed files.